India's projected economic growth for 2022 has been downgraded by over two per cent to 4.6% by the United Nations, a decrease attributed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with New Delhi expected to face restraints on energy access and prices, reflexes from trade sanctions, food inflation, tightening policies and financial instability, according to a UN report released on Thursday. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report downgraded its global economic growth projection for 2022 to 2.6 per cent from 3.6 per cent due to shocks from the Ukraine war and changes in macroeconomic policies that put developing countries particularly at risk. The report said while Russia will experience a deep recession this year, significant slowdowns in growth are expected in parts of Western Europe and Central, South and South-East Asia.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance despite rising inflation. This is the 11th time in a row that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has maintained the status quo. RBI had last revised its policy repo rate or the short-term lending rate on May 22, 2020 in an off-policy cycle to perk up demand by cutting the interest rate to a historic low.
With the world's worst outbreak of COVID pandemic stalling a nascent economic recovery, the government has begun assessing the impact of the second wave of infections on different sectors and may look at providing support at an appropriate time to segments requiring fiscal help. Some of the economic indicators, including the Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections, still provide confidence and incoming data will throw some more light on the state of the economy, sources said. Services sectors like hospitality, tourism and aviation which had just started recovering were hit hard by the second wave of COVID, the sources said, adding these segments might need some support on an urgent basis from the government.
Tata Steel was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying 3.23 per cent, followed by SBI, Yes Bank, Hero MotoCorp, ICICI Bank and Bharti Airtel.
After several years of downgrades to the country's medium-term growth outlook, the estimates are likely to be upgraded now, Credit Suisse said in a report. The country's economy is showing signs of bottoming out, it said. According to the report, the consensus forecasts of GDP growth for FY2022 over FY2020 stopped falling after October 2020 (currently at (-) 1 per cent). Analysts at Credit Suisse expect these estimates to be revised upwards.
'The outlook for private investment, which has been such a weak link for India for so long, remains challenging.'
In India, economic activity slowed substantially in 2019, with the deceleration most pronounced in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, whereas government-related services sub-sectors received significant support from public spending, the Bank said.
When FM was that the third-quarter GDP data was not in line with his ministry's optimism, he had said he relied on the advice of his advisors.
'We will have to wait for one more year to cross the 7% mark, which should be possible in the absence of any disruptive reform,' points out CARE Ratings Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis.
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Sliding for the fourth straight day, the BSE Sensex shed 152 points in choppy trade on Wednesday amid mixed global cues ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision.
The finance ministry said the sharp inflows last fiscal were due to the government's policy initiatives and economic recovery.
A surge in international oil prices may translate into an increase in the retail selling price of petrol and diesel in India as oil companies face extreme margin squeeze, sources said. Petrol and diesel prices have remained unchanged for 12 days but now the international rate surge is exerting pressure. Current prices of petrol and diesel in the international market are higher by around $4-6 per barrel as compared to average prices during August. However, no increase in retail prices has been affected by oil companies so far, sources said.
Pakistan was "drowning" in debt and it was the new government's job to "sail this ship ashore," Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Wednesday.
American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent. The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth, if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.
HDFC was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 2 per cent, followed by Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, M&M, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank and Titan.
Leading economists have pencilled in a high 13-15.7 per cent uptick in the economy in the first quarter of 2022-23 with an upward bias. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India, on Tuesday said he expects the GDP to clip past 15.7 per cent in the first quarter with more chances of the final numbers printing in higher, while Aditi Nayar, the chief economist at the rating agency Icra, said the economy will grow much lower at 13 per cent in the June quarter. The national statistical office will announce the first quarter GDP numbers later next week.
'While we note the very strong cyclical recovery in the economy, we believe there is still uncertainty over medium-term prospects.'
India's services sector activity continued to expand in September, supported by favourable underlying demand amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, but lost some momentum from August's 18-month high level, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 56.7 in August to 55.2 in September, but remained well above its long-run average. "Despite easing from August, the rate of expansion was marked and the second-fastest since February 2020," the survey said.
The laggards in the Sensex kitty were Vedanta, Tata Steel, M&M, HCL Tech, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki, L&T, Asian Paint and HDFC
Tata Motors was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, tumbling 2.47 per cent, followed by Reliance Industries (2.44 per cent), Maruti (1.84 per cent), SBI (1.76 per cent) and Bajaj Finance (1.23 per cent).
India will also play an increasingly important role as one of the Asia-Pacific region's major economic growth engines, helping to drive Asian regional trade and investment flows.
According to Korn Ferry Global Salary Forecast, India's salary growth for 2020 stood at 9.2 per cent. down from 10 per cent last year, while real-wage after adjusting inflation may remain constant at 5 per cent in 2020.
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RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that early containment of the pandemic could impart an "upside" to the economic growth outlook.
In the Sensex pack, HDFC, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Asian Paints, Mahindra and Mahindra and TCS were the prominent gainers. On the other hand, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra and SBI were among the major laggards. On the other hand, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, HUL, Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank were trading in the red.
The government's second round of stimulus will spur consumer spending in the near term but support to economic growth will be minimal, Moody's Investors Service said.
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday (local time) raised interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) or three-quarters of a percentage point in the boldest move since 1994.
The cost of not vaccinating the entire population quickly will be far higher than bearing the entire cost of vaccination, points out Prosenjit Datta.
The BJP still does not have a majority in Upper House of Parliament, the Rajya Sabha, and this will pose hurdles to the party's legislative reform agenda
Equity benchmarks extended their decline for the fourth straight session on Wednesday, with the Sensex falling 214.85 points after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate by 50 basis points. Continuous foreign fund outflows and surging crude oil prices also weighed on markets. The 30-share BSE benchmark dropped 214.85 points or 0.39 per cent to settle at 54,892.49.
Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian said India's economy will witness a decline in the current fiscal, but the drop will be limited if there is an economic recovery in the October-March period.
Production grew by a mere 0.5 per cent year-on-year, a significant comedown from the 3.5 per cent clocked in June.
Fitch Solutions on Thursday said the new climate targets announced at the COP26 summit by Prime minister Narendra Modi pose an upside risk to its outlook for renewable growth in the country. With the new targets, it expected to see attempts to alleviate the issues regarding supply chains, manufacturing and project development that have long plagued renewable proliferation.
After sinking 586 points during the day, the 30-share index ended 503.62 points, or 1.29 per cent, lower at 38,593.52. The broader NSE Nifty plunged 148 points, or 1.28 per cent, to 11,440.20.
For 2021-22, it projected the economy to clock a growth of 10.6 per cent.
RBI Governor would like to wait till Budget before taking any action on rate front.
'RBI is already late in addressing inflation pressures.'
